Session 1 – Geopolitics – The reality of our fears

Opening the discussion at the start of the first session, Francis Malige, Managing Director of Financial Institutions, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), likened geopolitics to capital markets. “It’s all about pricing expectations.” When risk increases, prices fall. In his view, “It’s actually market choices that help us to make the right decision for the planet”. Fostering greater unity and confronting challenges together will enable Europe to thrive in the new geopolitical era. A capital markets and savings union are crucial, as they will provide the necessary capital for investment and innovation. Finishing on a positive note, Mr Malige noted: “The one thing that saves us is the ingenuity of mankind”.

Mairéad McGuinness, former European Commissioner for financial services, financial stability and Capital Markets Union & former First Vice-President, European Parliament, warned that fear can be “a crippling emotion”. It must not prevent our “capacity, not just in Europe, but globally, to do things, to innovate, to find solutions”.

Suggesting a new political slogan – Make Europe Great Again – she called for strong, calm, even boring leadership and counselled against over-analysis and over-reaction. She emphasised the real-world consequences of President Trump’s tariffs. “People will die because of this policy.” The former Commissioner called on national leaders in Europe to devote more attention to the EU, since the Union is where responses and solutions can be found. Faced with a rapidly changing world order, she insisted: “We have the capacity to change”.

In a later discussion on the Green Deal, she stressed that its objectives remained in place, “but I think the path will change”. The road ahead is likely to be less ideologically driven, more pragmatic and to focus on buy-in from farmers and environmental organisations.

Viorel Gutu, FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Europe and Central Asia, sketched out the scale of challenges facing agri-food systems. Over 700 million people – 9% of the world’s population – are hungry and 3.1 billion undernourished. Yet, current food output can feed everyone on the planet and one-third of output is lost between production and consumption.

To illustrate the challenges and possible solutions, he produced a Rubik’s cube. Its symmetry can be broken in just a few moves, but “to put it back takes you a lot of time, effort and a systemic approach”. The cube symbolises the sustainable development goals of resilient, inclusive and sustainable agri-food systems through “better production, better nutrition, a better environment and a better life”.

Farmers are forward looking, but they require finance in the present when faced with a three to five-year conversion period. Incentives such as research, digital solutions and AI could help convince them make the journey “which will bring cash into their pockets much quicker”.

Luís Rua, Secretary of Trade and International Relations, Ministry of Agriculture, Brazil, emphasised that the country “has a great relationship with all countries in the world when you talk about food”. It is a founder member of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty and is working with African countries to help them improve agricultural practices. Brazil does not try to impose any model or regulation. “This is the approach we have when we talk about cooperation to improve food systems.”

Domestically, the country has reduced deforestation by 45% in the Amazon, is enhancing law enforcement and implementing programmes to make its agriculture even more sustainable. Effort is going to converting degraded pastures. Worldwide, these account for 30% of land. Brazil aims to transform over 40 million hectares of low productivity land into agricultural areas within ten years.

The speaker called for Europe and other geographies to join Brazil in promoting “the geopolitics of peace”. In a world of conflict, “we must be a reliable source of food security, energy security and climate security”.