Forum event highlights trends, risks and policy priorities

On November 6 and 7, the Forum for the Future of Agriculture hosted its 2025 Market outlook workshop, bringing together leading economists, analysts and sector experts to assess the newest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, covering 2025-2034, and explored what it means for agricultural markets, sustainability and policy in the decade ahead. Day 1 examined the assumptions behind the Outlook, the dynamics shaping arable and livestock markets, and the question posed openly in the final session: what could go wrong?

Welcome

Moderator Lee Ann Jackson, former Head of Agro-food Trade and Markets at the OECD, opened by emphasising the value of evidence in a world “defined by disruption,” and the need to keep future consequences in mind as decisions are made today.

Tassos Haniotis, Special Advisor for Sustainable Productivity at the ForumforAg and Senior Guest Research Scholar at IIASA, set the context. Markets have weathered COVID-19, the 2021 energy shock and the war in Ukraine, yet cost pressures persist. He argued that deeper structural forces are reshaping agriculture: trade relations increasingly defined by reciprocity; a climate context in which agriculture both emits and stores carbon; and a declining focus on science in policymaking. “The fact that the markets have stabilized doesn’t mean that they have come back to their previous equilibrium,” he said.

He also outlined major uncertainties for the decade ahead. Is the long-term decline in real agricultural prices reversing? How does “the new world disorder” influence market prospects, especially through trade tensions? Are current models adequately capturing climate risks and adaptation? And where in this shifting system could things go wrong?

Session 1 – The big picture

The opening session explored the global context for agricultural markets. Máximo Torero, Chief Economist at the FAO, introduced the OECD-FAO Outlook as an essential tool for monitoring structural drivers and assessing risks and opportunities in agricultural markets.

Marcel Adenäuer, Policy Analyst at the OECD, explained how the Outlook baseline is constructed. Key assumptions include a slower pace of population growth, stable global economic growth and important regional variations in diets and calorie intake. Production is projected to broadly track consumption, with direct greenhouse gas emissions rising in aggregate but declining per unit of output. Global prices are expected to decrease gradually over the long term, and imports will continue to play a vital role in meeting food-security needs in several regions.

Policy perspectives and modelling challenges

Bence Tóth, Acting Head of Unit for Analysis & Outlook at DG AGRI, highlighted two themes: food security and the role of science. Food security is not only about producing enough food, he stressed, but also about access and affordability. He welcomed a focus on sustainable productivity but urged that sustainable consumption must also be part of the conversation. Food loss and waste remain significant even in high-income regions, while many households continue to face vulnerability due to high prices. “There’s plenty of food to go around in terms of production, but a lot of it goes to waste and a lot of it does not go to those in need, mainly in less developed countries.”

He raised concerns about the tension between robust, time-consuming analysis and an “Insta world” shaped by rapid reactions and political pressure for fast responses. He asked whether the current volatility represents temporary disruption or a deeper, structural shift in the global order.

Tassos Haniotis underscored the challenges of modelling in a period of structural change. The U.S. shifting to a net importer of agricultural products alters long-standing assumptions. He questioned the practice of applying a single global carbon price, given widely varying soil types and carbon sequestration potential. Fertiliser costs, he noted, are driven primarily by natural gas rather than oil, putting European producers at a structural disadvantage compared with the U.S. He called for better technology uptake, especially precision fertilisers, and more accurate measurement of food waste and losses.

Marcel Adenäuer underlined the difficulty of modelling complex systems. One scenario drastically reducing food waste initially appears to generate a “win-win-win” outcome, but further analysis reveals lower farm incomes. “Modelling is still the only way to analyse uncertainties,” he said. “If you want to capture feedbacks, or even approximate them, you need modelling approaches.”

What makes modelling useful?

The panellists raised several key elements in achieving useful modelling:

Assumptions: How do we prioritise investment to keep market outlook models effective and relevant? Price assumptions can have major implications for interpretation. Could the modelling framework allow exploration of different starting assumptions, or is that too difficult in practice?

Data: The two must go hand-in-hand. In the EU, the ongoing Horizon Europe projects and collaboration with the Joint Research Centre are examples of leveraging data to improve tools in the agricultural space for faster, more detailed analysis.

Connecting global models with local data and insights: This connection allows analysis to flow meaningfully in both directions. One of the Outlook’s key values is its ability to build consensus among policymakers around a shared baseline for how global markets may evolve.

Policy relevance: Mr Haniotis said that the usefulness of modelling depends on understanding the policymaking audience and focusing on questions that are relevant to current debates. He argued that models should prioritise policy relevance over the number of scenarios, emphasising continuity and reliability of data rather than constantly changing datasets or adding new indicators that are hard to source or interpret.

 Session 2 – The arable crops outlook

Thomas Chatzopoulos, Policy Analyst at the OECD, presented the arable crops analysis. He described the arable sector as “maturing but under pressure,” with slower demand growth, high market concentration, and increasing importance placed on sustainability and innovation.

Key trends

Cereals: Production will continue rising, driven mainly by productivity, but growth will slow. High concentration offers efficiency but increases exposure to regional shocks. Real prices are projected to decline.

Oilseeds: Supply remains exposed to weather variability, ageing plantations and labour shortages. Stagnating yields add uncertainty.

Biofuels: Growth will be modest and primarily driven by emerging economies; production and trade remain dominated by a few players.

Across the sector, Mr Chatzopoulos stressed the need for resilience and cooperation: the challenge is “not only to produce more with less, but to produce with less and more cooperatively.” Extreme weather is adding uncertainty, and greater policy alignment is needed to support the most food-insecure regions.

Perspectives from the panel

Iliana Axiotiades, Secretary General of Coceral, identified three themes:

• Growing policy interventionism, including redirected flows from U.S. policy, rice intervention in Japan, and the implications of the EU Deforestation Regulation. “We’re not back to Soviet Union times,” she said, “but we are seeing more interventions at political level.”
• Climate surprises, with unpredictable shocks undermining expected harvests.
• Balancing sustainability and productivity, warning that over-emphasis on sustainability goals could distract from food security.

Tiffanie Stephani, Vice-President, European Government Relations and External Communications, Yara International – Region Europe, stressed the urgent need for greater nutrient efficiency, noting that farmers could improve nitrogen use efficiency by up to 20% through better product choices and precision application. “We have an opportunity in Europe to support farmers even more in making every nutrient count,” she said. Input-intensive fertiliser production faces ongoing volatility, and decarbonisation costs must be shared across value chains.

Feed industry weaknesses were highlighted by Alexander Döring, Secretary General of FEFAC, who described how the system fits together, how different actors could be working together, and how to get incentives right to encourage innovation and transformation. He  focused on the need for closer collaboration across the nutrition spectrum: plant, animal and human. “Why is it that plant nutritionists never talk to animal nutritionists, or human nutritionists?” he asked. More use of co-products could reduce emissions per kilogram of output. He also highlighted Europe’s dependence on imported amino acids and vitamins.

Livestock has been targeted as the source of many problems, but in fact it is part of the climate solution, he said, yet EU incentives remain weak. Only two Member States currently reward low-emission feeding systems. He called for a more “joined-up, pre-farm gate approach” to drive innovation and resilience.

Brazil’s systemic approach

Glauco Bertoldo, Agricultural Attaché at the Mission of Brazil to the EU, described Brazil’s integrated food-feed-fuel-carbon capture system, supported by decades of tropical agriculture research at Embrapa. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria in soybeans, for example, have significantly reduced fertiliser needs.

Brazil’s competitiveness, he stressed, comes from having few subsidies and strong incentives to “do more with less.” He also underlined the synergy between biofuels and food production: ethanol and biodiesel industries create local feed supplies and rural development benefits.

Following up, Mr Chatzopoulos noted that fertiliser and energy prices, while easing, remain above pre-Ukraine-war levels, pressuring short-term yields yet accelerating innovation. Extreme climate events will require further resilience and investment.

Enhancing trust

To close the session, panellists gave examples of efforts to enhance trust and coordination in order to navigate some of the risks: partnerships and collaboration, daily effort with daily successes, tools that build trust through transparency, and driving innovation. Their remarks underscored that real transformation in agri-food systems will come through collaboration, innovation and trust across the value chain.

Session 3 – The livestock sector outlook

The livestock session examined projected trends in meat and dairy markets. Marcel Adenäuer presented the Outlook’s findings, highlighting slower overall consumption growth, shifting dietary preferences and steady productivity improvements.

Global meat consumption will increase, but more slowly than in the previous decade. In high-income countries, health, welfare and environmental concerns are expected to stabilise per-capita consumption. Productivity gains (higher slaughter weights, improved genetics and better feed efficiency) will moderate environmental impacts: emissions are projected to rise by 6% against a 13% increase in meat output.

Dairy consumption will expand mainly through yield growth, particularly in India and Pakistan. More than half of global milk production growth will come from South Asia, while EU output may decline slightly. A persistent gap between butter and skim-milk-powder prices reflects sustained demand for milk fats.

Key discussion themes

Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Economist and Senior Researcher at the European Commission, asked whether slowing growth might soon turn into an actual decline in meat consumption as dietary habits change. He pointed to land constraints and nitrogen rules that could tighten supply. He also noted a growing “decoupling” between production and emissions, driven by sustainable intensification: “We are changing the paradigm that increase in production means increase in emissions.”

Sabrina Kogler, DG AGRI, raised concerns about grasslands. Declining livestock numbers in the EU threaten grassland ecosystems that support biodiversity and climate regulation. Grassland area has fallen by about 30% in Western Europe since 1970, with abandonment or conversion depending on region.

Marjukka Mattio, Senior Advisor, Dairy Milk Production, Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners (MTK), Finland & Special Adviser for the Milk Market Observatory, stressed the need to raise productivity while cutting emissions, supported by CAP financing and market incentives. Yield improvements remain a major opportunity, but sector vulnerabilities and volatility require attention. She also mentioned emerging pressures from plant-based and lab-grown alternatives.

Livestock at a crossroads

Benoît Cassart, Member of the European Parliament, described the sector as “optimistic and frustrated.” Livestock numbers in Europe have fallen by 30% since the 1990s, and the average farmer is nearly 60. Policymakers face difficult choices: cutting livestock numbers to meet emissions targets risks “exporting emissions” if production shifts abroad. He warned that if the next CAP moves away from coupled payments, herd decline could accelerate.

The panel concluded with examples of practical actions to move the livestock sector forward, all of which underlined that the sector’s transformation will depend on evidence-based policy, investment in technology and trust across the value chain.

Session 4 – What could go wrong?

In an informal discussion, the final session examined the risks that could pull real-world markets away from the baseline projections. “The interest is in how different things are to the baselines,” said Joseph Glauber Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Trade, input costs and climate risks

Mr Glauber highlighted the cumulative effects of trade wars and the spread of supplemental tariffs, which now affect products beyond the typical row crops, including coffee and other speciality goods. Trade diversion is already visible, and questions loom over how “to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.”

John Baffes, Senior Agriculture Economist, Development Economics Prospects Group, World Bank, focused on two risks: input costs and climate change. Fertiliser prices have diverged sharply from energy prices, rising despite falling oil and gas prices – a pattern he said can create pressure for producers. Climate impacts are harder to demonstrate in aggregate yield data, making it challenging to convince policymakers of urgency. He suggested that tree crops, where prices have surged, may offer earlier signals of climate stress than annual grains.

Alan Matthews, Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences and Philosophy, Trinity College Dublin, cautioned that rising interest in “food sovereignty” and self-sufficiency is pushing support levels upward, reminiscent of the 1980s. Efforts to apply domestic environmental standards to imports, combined with reciprocal tariff policies, risk fragmenting global markets at a time when open trade will be essential in managing extreme climate events.

Across the discussion, panellists stressed issues of trust and institutions. Higher food and energy prices can have strong political consequences, allowing “populists to have a party,” as one speaker put it, even when models show limited long-term impacts. While the trading system has demonstrated resilience, participants questioned whether existing institutions are equipped to reverse escalating support and tit-for-tat measures.

The panel’s answer to “what could go wrong” was not a single catastrophic shock, but a series of interacting pressures on trade, input markets, climate-sensitive crops, domestic support and public trust – pressures that could, over time, pull agricultural markets away from the relatively orderly path sketched in the baseline outlooks.

Wrap-up

In closing, Lee Ann Jackson grouped the discussions into three themes that will shape how well the world navigates the risks ahead:

1. Evidence and analysis – sustaining investment in modelling, data and expertise so policymakers have a reliable base for decisions.
2. Policy challenges – navigating agriculture’s “triple challenge” of environmental goals, food security and farmer livelihoods.
3. Cooperation and coherence – breaking silos within governments, improving policy alignment, strengthening data collaboration and maintaining constructive cross-country relationships around trade.

She ended on a note of optimism about how these relationships and practices can evolve, even against the backdrop of uncertainty explored throughout the day.